PADD1 Clean Tanker Demand Outlook Nov17

Clean tanker demand for the US East Coast (PADD1) is resuming its previous declines, on weak fundamentals.  Slowed by weak demographics, PADD1 gasoline demand will face tepid vehicle-miles travelled and the continued growth of electric vehicles (EVs).  Meanwhile, fuel switching to natural gas for home heating is providing a structural decline in heating oil demand, offsetting rising trucking demand for diesel.  Despite all of the angst over PADD1 refining, the region’s plants account for only 20% of clean product supply, and PADD1 is essentially a large blending centre reliant on the USG (PADD3) to meet demand.  Stable pipeline flows and rising Jones Act tanker movements will cut into imports and tanker demand.  Lower inventories and a colder winter could boost demand this season.  Download the Executive Summary of the presentation here.