European refiners play larger role in US crude & condensate exports — With Canadian imports remaining stable, Europe becomes the primary destination for incremental US crude and condensate exports. Although North Sea production should decline by 300 kbpd during 2015-20, European refiners have limited ability to take larger volumes of 45° API crude and 55+° API condensate, when we examine each country’s crude slate. US producers will need to find additional outlets in Latin America, as well as higher Asian exports, as the rising light-ends imbalance pressures prices and opens arbs.